From Department of Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science
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This report was commissioned by SOLAS – the Further Education and Training Authority of Ireland and the Department of Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science (DFHERIS). Its purpose is to quantify the additional construction skills which will be required to deliver the Government’s targets in new housing and the retrofitting of 446,300 homes over the period 2023-2030 (while the Government’s target is for 500,000 homes to be retrofitted to B2 BER, a number have already been completed).
Housing for All sets out a vision and a plan of action over a nine-year period for for all relevant Government Departments and Agencies. The first annual review in October 2022, set out how the Government is responding to recent developments and ensuring focus remains on delivery. The publication of this report is a high priority action under the revised Housing for All plan, to help tackle the housing crisis, by ensuring we have the skills demands to meet our housing and domestic retrofit targets.
The report focuses on all construction skills – that is skills which correspond to every qualification level on the Irish National Framework of Qualifications (NFQ). The vocational skills covered are those in SOC 1-digit occupation groups 1,2,3, 5 and 8.
In general, the education and training of persons in levels 1-6 inclusive is funded by SOLAS and delivered by sixteen Education and Training Boards (ETBs). In contrast, the education and training of persons for qualifications above level 6 is in general provided by higher education institutes.
Three different forecasts are presented in the report:
Presenting three separate forecasts enables policymakers to identify the impact of any change in the schedule of activity in any of these three residential sub-sectors on the availability of skill workers for the other two subsector (e.g. a slowing down in the pace of retrofitting activity will release skilled workers for the building of new houses).
The year 2019 is used as the base year for the forecast period because it is the most recent year in which building activity was not interrupted by the pandemic and for which information on construction employment and expenditure is available. The estimation of employment in each specific construction occupation in 2019 is based on a combination of sources including the 2017 and the 2019 Labour Force Surveys (LFS) and the 2016 Census of Population and in the case of professional workers, the membership of relevant professional bodies.
The 2017 LFS is used because it contains a question on the extent to which construction craft workers and operatives are mainly employed in the residential sector. The responses to that question produce employment figures for many construction trades which are significantly higher than the corresponding figures produced in recent reports. In particular, the 2019 estimate for employment in the designated trades is higher than the corresponding figures in a recent report by AECOM consultants which used the input/output approach.
The magnitude of the gap between the demand and supply of construction skills for housing, retrofitting and general repair and maintenance is strongly influenced by the anticipated trajectory of building activity. In the house building schedule presented herein, the target of 34,500 annual house completions is reached in 2025. In contrast, almost all of the retrofitting of houses to a B2 standard or equivalent is projected to occur over the period 2026-2030 inclusive.
In the case of the building of new houses, the schedule is determined by the level of commencements and planning permissions issued in recent years. The volume of both were exceptional in 2021, and the indications are that roughly 27,000 houses will be completed in 2022.
In the case of retrofitting of 446,300 houses, the schedule of activity agreed between the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC) and the Sustainability Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) envisages that roughly 25% of the houses will be retrofitted by 2025, while 75% will be retrofitted between 2026 and 2030.
It is assumed that the level of general repair and maintenance which occurred in 2019 will continue for each year of the forecast period.
There are four potential sources of the supply of professional, technical, skilled, and semi-skilled construction workers in Ireland. These are the technological universities and institutes of technology; the apprenticeship system; the Construction Skills Certification Scheme (CSCS) and an extensive range of relatively short vocational training courses.
In addition, there are two sources of skills supply from outside of Ireland. Firstly, there is a significant number of skilled workers employed in the construction industry who have come to Ireland from another country within the European Economic Area (EEA). Secondly, there are a significant number of skilled workers who were born outside of the EEA and are employed in the industry, having availed of the work permit scheme.
To deliver the Government’s targets in housing and retrofitting and to continue to engage in general repair and maintenance, it is estimated that 50,831 new entrants will have to be recruited in managerial, professional, skilled, and semi-skilled occupations over the period 2023-2030. These new entrants may be a combination of workers currently employed in the industry who are seeking to upskill, or jobseekers who wish to pursue a career in building or retrofitting.
To understand their training and education requirements, the new entrants are distributed based on their qualifications, distinguishing between managerial, professional, technical and craft workers, non-designated trade workers and operatives.
The number of new entrants required for professional, technical and craft qualifications presents the greatest challenge because it takes a number of years to obtain such qualifications. In contrast, new entrants who require an operative or other trade qualification can obtain such a qualification relatively quickly through participating on an appropriate construction certificate training programme or one of a range of short vocational skills programmes.
The latter include a wide range of vocational training courses in all aspects of the retrofitting of domestic dwellings, including insulation, airtightness, the installation of heating systems, ventilation, and solar systems.
It also includes many upskilling programmes specifically targeted to craft workers in some of the existing trades notably bricklaying, carpentry, electrical and plumbing. The object of such upskilling courses is to provide those who have been trained in the traditional apprenticeship system with the skills to contribute to the creation of Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB).
These courses also include non-designated trades such as glazing, roofing and steel erection and the new
apprenticeship of scaffolding. Scaffolding is not part of the pre-2016 apprenticeship system and has a different structure.
However, while there is no difficulty in principle to delivering the skills associated with operatives or the nondesignated trades, providing upskilling courses to such relatively large numbers of employees and jobseekers will require a significant increase in the current capacity of the vocational training system.
The schedule of building activity creates challenges because most of the house building takes place in the early years of the forecast period. Indeed, housebuilding reaches its peak of 34,500 annually by 2025. Of course the peak of house building activity in practice may rise above 34,500, but this is all that is required to deliver an average of 33,000 houses between 2022-2030. As can be seen from Tables 3E and 4E below, there is a gap between the requirement for new entrants and the supply from the third level system and the apprenticeship system – the gap is particularly striking in the case of the latter.
With the exception of managers of waste disposal, the annual supply of graduates from the third-level education system appears to be broadly in line with the forecast demand. This reflects the introduction of new courses in both architecture, and quantity surveying in recent years.
There are a few niche areas where an increase in education and training provision should be considered. Firstly, an additional course in building surveying may be warranted by the anticipated significant increase in house building and retrofitting. It is recommended that the Higher Education Authority review the level of provision of graduate programmes in this skills area.
Secondly, there is a gap in project management skills specifically for the supervision of craft workers and other skilled trades. This skills deficit needs to be addressed as the work of the skilled trades is becoming more complex because of the focus on sustainability and because technology and new materials is having a major impact on traditional building techniques.
The increase in the complexity of the building process also suggests that a review of the existing graduate project management courses would be appropriate to ensure that the curricula and structure reflects modern building methods and materials – including off-site manufacturing and more extensive supply chains.
The findings from this report also support the recent decision to approve a significant increase in the number of professional planners (the Government has agreed an increase of 200 in the number of professional planners).
It is not recommended to increase the current level of education provision for either architects or quantity surveyors. This is the case for two reasons. Firstly, there have been increases in education provision for both these disciplines in recent years. Secondly, sentiment in the Irish construction industry has been negative for both commercial development and civil engineers in recent months and consequently, such an increase is not warranted at this time. This issue may be revisited in subsequent updates of this report.
The situation regarding the supply of apprentices is complex. Firstly, the numbers completing an apprenticeship has varied greatly over the years. In general, if the employment prospects in the industry are good, the rate is relatively high and vice versa. However, the completion rate is rarely above 75%.
Secondly, the education and training system and the construction industry itself suffered periods of closure in both 2020 and 2021 as a result of the pandemic. As an apprenticeship consists of 7 phases, combining both on-the-job and off-the-job training, these closures created significant delays for the education and training system in processing the apprentices through each of the phases. There are continuing discussions between the relevant stakeholders on how best to expedite this process and it is not yet possible to make accurate projections of the impact of these closures on the completion rate.
The figures in Table 4E indicate that there may be shortages in some trades unless action is taken to avoid this scenario. Some of these potential shortages are a cause for greater concern than others. The numbers registering for the painting and decorating apprenticeship and for the plastering and tiling apprenticeship have been very low for many years. This low level of registration does not appear to have restricted the level of new housebuilding in recent years, and the continuing low level of registration in these trades is not expected to be an obstacle to delivering the new housing targets.
Technological displacement of labour may be one of the factors contributing to a reduction in the level of registration in these trades – particularly in plastering. The widespread use of dry lining and increasingly higher levels of both timber and glazing in the building fabric may also be contributing factors.
Similarly, the fact that apartments are now an increasing share of the housing stock will have implications for the demand for bricklayers. Many apartments use pre-cast concrete rather than blocks or bricks for the construction of the walls and this practice will reduce the demand for the skills of the bricklayer. Unfortunately, as apartment building has only become a significant share of residential development in recent years, there is not sufficient data available to accurately estimate the impact of the building of apartments on the demand for bricklayers.
A similar situation applies in the case of carpenters. There is increasing evidence from building sites that off-site construction of timber frames is becoming more popular. For example, for large estate building, roofing frames are often being delivered to the site fully constructed, while much of the frame of timber houses is built off-site. The sponsorship of apprentices in the wood manufacturing and finishing trade has increased in recent years and these developments may be a contributing factor.
The level of productivity is a major factor in determining the number of skilled construction workers required to deliver a particular quantum of building activity. The forecast in this report assumes that the level of productivity which prevailed in 2019 continues over the forecast period. Further research however is required to determine if this assumption is realistic. The issue is discussed in more detail in chapter five of the report.
The forecasting model developed in this report should be continuously updated in response to relevant changes in the external environment. This process will require the retention of a person who is familiar with the industry and with labour market forecasting.
An entirely new forecast may be required in early 2023 (May) if current indications of an increase in productivity among the skilled trades are confirmed at the end of 2022. In such a scenario, the new forecast would be based on the relationship between employment and output in 2022 rather than in 2019 – which is the base year for the current forecast.
A group should be set up by Government consisting of representatives of the Institutions which represent construction professionals (e.g. SCSI; EI; RIAI; IPI etc.). The remit of the group should be to generate ideas which would assist in the enhancement of productivity and sustainability in Irish Construction. The group should meet initially for a year (4 meetings) and their administrative requirements should be provided by Government. The hope underpinning this recommendation is that the coming together of professionals from many different disciplines would provide a fertile ground for the cross-pollination of ideas which, if implemented, could enhance sustainability and productivity in the industry.
The Higher Education Authority should explore the curricula on the graduate environmental courses to ensure that the current level of provision of education for the management and disposal of waste is adequate for future needs.
The provision of education for surveying – specifically building surveying – should be reviewed. The graduate output as recently as the year 2021 appears to be approximately 20. That level of output is roughly 5% of the numbers employed in the occupation and may have to be increased in view of the anticipated high levels of construction activity over the rest of the decade. An increase in education provision for quantity surveyors is not recommended at this time as there have been increases in provision in recent years and sentiment in the industry regarding the anticipated level of activity in commercial development and civil engineering has been negative in recent months. The October 2022 edition of BNP Paribus Real Estate index of sentiment in the industry shows civil engineering at 37, commercial at 45 and housing at 50. A figure of less than 50 indicates a negative outlook.
The intention to significantly increase the employment of professional planners is consistent with the findings from this report. The current level of annual new house building must increase by at least 65% compared to 2019 to realise the targets in ‘Housing for All’. This will have a major impact on the workload of planners.
The curricula on the current cadre of project management graduate courses should be reviewed to ensure that it is up to date and comprehensive in respect of current developments in the responsibilities of management (e.g. on-site building and off-site manufacturing, building techniques, new materials, and sustainability).
A new training programme designed to develop project management skills at level 7 among experienced craft workers should be introduced. Both ‘on the job training’ and theoretical modules should be available on sites with appropriate facilities (e.g. Mount Lucas) and formal certification should be provided by the technological universities. The purpose of this recommendation is to create a cadre of persons for the industry with the knowledge and skills to supervise the skilled trades in undertaking tasks using building techniques related to sustainability and new materials which, in many cases, were not part of their traditional apprenticeship curricula.
An information campaign – using job fairs and other methods – should be initiated with the objective of persuading skilled workers, particularly plumbers, carpenters, and bricklayers, who are employed in other EU Member States and in 3rd countries to seek work in the construction sector in Ireland. Ireland has a number of advantages in this regard, particularly since the United Kingdom left the European Union. As the only native English speaking EU Member State and with average wages higher in the industry in Ireland than in the industry in many other countries, the potential for attracting a significant number of foreign-based craft workers is considerable.
To assist this process, the appropriate authorities should consult the annual survey of shortages and surpluses in Europe conducted by the European Labour Authority. The 2022 survey of shortages and surpluses in the EEA and Switzerland (forthcoming) show some surpluses of construction craft. However, in general, these occupations are on the list of shortages of most of the countries surveyed in the report.
A new training course should be introduced to produce workers who are capable of providing assistance to qualified craft workers who are engaged in the retrofitting of houses to an equivalent B2 standard. The course should be modelled on the current Nearly Zero Energy Building (NZEB) fundamental awareness course. This course has proved to be very attractive to both employers and learners – 373 unique learners attended 9 such courses in 2019. The intention is that while work would have to be signed off by the relevant qualified craft person, those qualified in the proposed new ‘retrofit assistant’ course could do much of the physical work – thus reducing the burden of work on for example, qualified plumbers.
Consideration should be given to the creation of a national centre for the development and assessment of construction skills. This could be modelled on the centre at Kings Lynn which performs this function for the United Kingdom. With this in mind, an audit should be conducted of the potential of the centre at Mount Lucas in County Offaly to perform this function. That centre is currently offering a wide range of training courses in retrofitting houses to high BER standards and in CSCS training, and it has sufficient land for a significant extension in current capacity.
Report on the Analysis of Skills for Residential Construction & Retrofitting, 2023 to 2030
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