How many engineers and technicians does it take to build a nuclear-powered submarine? Or maintain one? Or operate one?
That is one of the big questions facing the Defence bureaucracy. Under the AUKUS pact, US and UK submarines will step up their visits to Australia from this year, and they will be based here from 2027. In the early 2030s, Australia will receive between three and five US Virginia-class submarines. The first locally made AUKUS-class nuclear-powered submarine will be delivered to the navy in the early 2040s.
Experts say maybe 8000 trained staff will be needed all up. The navy will need about 900 nuclear-trained people just to operate its eight submarines and another 4900 to maintain them, with at least 2000 more needed to design and build the subs. That’s actually fewer than you might think, and they’re not all needed at once, but it’s still a big task.
Dr Edward Obbard, Head of Nuclear Engineering at UNSW. Louie Douvis
“Educating a workforce of this size is a major academic undertaking,” says Dr Edward Obbard, coordinator of UNSW Sydney’s nuclear engineering program.
The Defence Department hasn’t provided numbers beyond a rough figure of 20,000, which includes about 4000 to build the submarine construction site at Osborne, South Australia, and another 3000 to upgrade the existing dockyard in Perth.
Australia needs to demonstrate its nuclear stewardship credentials before it can acquire the first Virginia-class boats in around 2033. Workforce training for officers, sailors, engineers and dockyard technicians has begun, so that the navy can support UK and US submarines in Australia and then operate and build its own nuclear-powered submarines.
We’ll need 577 nuclear-trained mid-tier and top-tier subject matter experts by 2028, says Obbard, so that by the time the navy starts crewing its AUKUS submarines those graduates will have years of experience.
At full capacity, by about the mid-2030s, we’ll need a pipeline capable of maintaining a workforce of up to 8000 personnel who design, build, maintain and crew the submarines and provide technical oversight and expertise. That workforce will need refreshing roughly every 10 years as people are promoted, retire or leave the sector entirely.
The good news is that Australia already teaches all of the necessary engineering disciplines, says Obbard. And about 70 per cent of the total workforce will be vocationally trained technicians who will build and maintain the submarines — not nuclear engineers and scientists – so their training and education will be faster.
The bad news? Australia doesn’t produce enough engineers – nuclear, or not.
However, the talent pipeline has begun operating. The first three navy officers graduated from the US Navy’s Nuclear Power School last month and more, including junior sailors, will train soon with the US and UK navies. The first civilian engineers and technicians are about to head to US and UK dockyards to pick up skills they can bring back to Australia.
The builder of the submarines in Australia is not yet known. British giant BAE Systems is in the box seat, as it builds the British submarine fleet and the new submarine class – SSN AUKUS – will be used by both the British and Australian navies. It already has a strong presence in Australia.
The Australian Submarine Agency is co-designing a Skills and Training Academy with the South Australian Government to prepare the state’s ship and submarine building workforce.
The federal government has allocated $132.4 million over four years to fund an additional 4000 university STEM places and establish a skills taskforce. Last month Defence launched an Early Careers Program with submarine builder ASC to develop the skills needed by the submarine project.
Adelaide’s Flinders University this year signed agreements with the University of Manchester, which leads the UK’s Nuclear Technology Education Consortium, and with the University of Rhode Island in the US. These will provide students with access to undersea and nuclear technology and also to the US navy’s submarine community. Other Australian universities are establishing relationships with different universities and training providers in the UK.
However, Australia needs to build “a community of nuclear experts outside Defence,” says Obbard. This is essential both for oversight of such a major program and for independent expert input to consult when necessary.
Much of that expertise will come from professional immersion in the topic and doctorate-level R&D, but university capacity and facilities for such R&D simply don’t exist at present.
Obbard advocates establishing a multi-university collaborative training institute to attract and nurture the necessary expertise. He also advocates greater communication between experts and society at large. Australians are smart enough to handle reasoned arguments around having nuclear-powered submarines but the contrast between the few with knowledge of the technology and the majority, including much of government, with little knowledge at all is stark.
“That’s a huge imbalance, and that’s unusual,” says Obbard. “It would be wrong to try and govern something like this based on our gut instincts.”
Defence needs to hold a conversation with ordinary Australians about nuclear-powered submarines and Defence careers, he says.
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